From the LA Times today comes an article titled Iraq strategy geared to U.S. pullout. The recent offensive, Operation Phantom Thunder, is directed against Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the group responsible for the vast majority of suicide bombings. US forces are less engaged with Shiite militias, hoping that dealing with AQI will give the Mahdi army and splinter groups fewer reasons to create problems. Al Sadr is playing good cop for the moment, but eventually the central government is going to have to absorb or crush these groups — however, we’ve essentially decided that’s their problem, not ours. We’ll deal with the immediate violence and the Iraqis can deal with hammering out a Sunni/Shiite/Kurd power-sharing arrangement.
On the surface, this offensive sounds like the same old whack-a-mole tactics that have failed for several years, with US forces chasing insurgents in circles. It’s not. We’re finally holding areas as we clear them and working with both Shiite and Sunni leaders to isolate the insurgents and remove their support base. We’ve given up on trying to apply the quick-strike Rumsfeld doctrine to fighting a guerrilla war and are doing the job slowly, block by block, with boots on the ground. Where AQI has dug in, US forces are stepping through mines and bombs to get to them, and in a face-to-face fight we win. Where AQI manages to run, we leave enough force to prevent their return, and we work with the populace to create an environment hostile to AQI.
Petraeus and his chain of command are showing some welcome realism in assessing the situation in Iraq:
The point of the current mission, said David Kilcullen, Petraeus’ top counterinsurgency advisor, is not to help Iraq “turn a corner” that would allow the U.S. to leave the country in a state of peace. Instead, U.S. strategists hope to beat back militant groups enough to give Iraq’s Shiite-led government a chance to achieve some measure of stability. [...] “We haven’t turned the tide. We haven’t turned the corner, there isn’t light at the end of the tunnel. But what we have done is take a failing enterprise and put it on a sound long-term footing.”
We’ve learned from bitter experience that it is essential to retain control of areas after they are pacified:
The United States must not rush to withdraw forces from Iraq’s volatile Diyala province and other areas targeted in the latest American military offensive, a U.S. general said on Monday. Brig. Gen. Dana Pittard, the head of a U.S. military unit supporting Iraqi forces, said U.S. troops had withdrawn too quickly from Diyala in the past and violence then flared up. He said U.S. commanders had to be sure that Iraqi forces would be able to maintain security in Diyala, a region with substantial Sunni and Shi’ite Muslim populations, and other areas before handing over security operations to them.
This is part of a multi-pronged strategy that includes diplomatic as well as military efforts:
From the LA Times: If the U.S. can show dramatic progress against Al Qaeda, other pieces of the Iraqi puzzle may fall into place, Petraeus said. For example, Petraeus predicted that pushing back Al Qaeda would help advance what he sees as the most promising development of recent months, the decision by some Sunni tribal leaders to turn against Al Qaeda militants.From Michael Yon: our current leadership under Petraeus is adroitly pushing political buttons behind the curtains. Based on things I saw, heard, and even videotaped while out among Iraqi tribal leaders in Anbar, unseen hands are reaching out and finding peace with tribes where others found war. Based on what I see all around Iraq, and not just in Anbar, I believe intuitively that most of this war can be ended through smart politics.
It’s not going to be easy. AQI isn’t going to just roll over and die. But they’re becoming increasingly isolated and facing intense military pressure. The bombings that were once intended to inflame sectarian tensions are now aimed indiscriminately at Sunni and Shiite alike: A suicide bomber detonated his explosives inside a busy central Baghdad hotel, killing at least 12 people — most of them Sunni and Shiite tribal leaders meeting as part of Iraq’s reconciliation effort — Iraqi officials said. A horrible attack, and there will be more to come, with those Iraqis brave enough to stand for peace and stability being the primary targets. But also a sign that the Iraqis will not be played against each other by groups with outside interests and agendas.
There are significant obstacles to long-term stability in Iraq. There will be squabbles as each group tries to maximize its own power. The al Maliki government must find a way to control extremist Shiite elements. There are refugees who need safe homes, there are too many people without jobs, the Iraqi security forces are not sufficiently effective (or neutral). Americans don’t see those problems are ours to deal with; we’re all tired of the war, tired of the seemingly senseless deaths, tired of the mistakes.However, we’re finally pursuing the correct strategy in Iraq: stop the violence, clear and hold insurgent strongholds, and get the local populace working against AQI. If this works we should be able to draw-down troops while still retaining a force to back up the Iraqis if necessary, and this decrease in our presence will hopefully reduce anti-American tensions that are contributing to the current violence. We don’t have to fix everything in Iraq, and we’re not trying to. But we do have to give this new strategy a chance to succeed so we can leave behind a stable country.
